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Chocolate is Sweetest Seller of Them All
PrintChocolate is Sweetest Seller of Them All  

By Brian Berk

When it comes to confectionery products, chocolate is clearly the sweetest. Sales per store were projected to increase 9 percent in 2011 to $12,232, compared to the previous year. A bit of a slowdown is expected in 2012, but chocolate sales should still be strong.

The non-chocolate category showed "pretty good strength in 2011," said Maureen Maguire of ThinkResearch. Sales per store were projected to increase 8.5 percent to $9,085, compared to $8,373 in 2010. 2012 could be another big year for non-chocolate, as a 5 percent per-store sales increase is forecasted. Per-store sales of non-chocolate items are expected to reach $9,569 this year.

The news is not nearly as sweet for mint and gum sales, however. Mints did not have a great year in 2010 or 2011. In 2010, sales per store dropped nearly 3 percent to $2,286. A slight uptick in 2011 was expected, with sales per store projected to reach $2,333. But don't expect mint sales to continue that trend in 2012, according to the CSNews Forecast Study. A 3-percent sales decrease per store is expected, to $2,263. "Mints did not have good year in 2010," said Maguire. "They are not roaring back in 2011, and we do not foresee good numbers in 2012."

Gum also showed weakness in 2010 and 2011. Once all the figures are tallied, sales of gum products per store were expected to decline nearly 3 percent in 2011 to $8,240. Although 2012 is expected to see a slight uptick in sales, the data projects it will be nothing to write home about. The per-store sales gain for gum is expected to be just 0.9 percent, to $8,314 per store.

Fig. 10
Total Candy, Gum & Mints Forecast (% change)

The retailers in attendance at this year's Forecast Council had several conclusions as to why gum sales are declining at their stores. One reason they cited is consumers haven't fully accepted gum price increases during the past few years. Another reason offered by the retailers was that manufacturer innovation regarding new gum products has tapered off recently.

Snacks
Overall, snacks had a good year in 2010, were expected to have another strong year in 2011 and although growth is forecasted to moderate in 2012, Maguire admitted her estimates for next year are conservative and could turn out to be better than the figures she provided.

One of the reasons for less enthusiasm regarding 2012 sales is that the high U.S. unemployment rate has begun to affect consumer purchases in the snacks category, Maguire said.

Salty snacks, snack cakes and grain bars were all predicted to show per-store sales growth for 2011. Regarding salty snacks, 2011 per-store sales were expected to increase 2.6 percent to $28,820. In 2012, another slight rise is expected. Per-store sales are expected to increase 0.8 percent to $29,038 per store.

Fig. 11
Total Salty Snacks Forecast (% change)

Snack cakes were expected to show a solid increase of 3.1 percent per store to $3,006 for 2011. The figure is expected to be basically flat in 2012, with projected per-store sales of $3,010. "Snack cakes did much better in 2011 than 2010 (when per-store sales rose 1.3 percent)," said Maguire.

Grain bars had a fantastic 2010, when per-store sales jumped 9 percent. Although clearly not as strong, per-store sales in the category were expected to remain robust in 2011, with sales expected to increase 3.9 percent to $571 per store. 2012 should be slightly better than 2011. Per-store sales are anticipated to increase another 4.2 percent to $595 per store.
— Brian Berk

The Path to Purchase
Winning immediate consumption trips from quick-service restaurants (QSRs), grocery stores and supercenters is vital to promote c-store growth, according to Krista Lorio of General Mills, who presented insights entitled "Consumer Path to Purchase" at the Forecast Council.

Before c-store owners and operators can take those consumer visits away from competitors, they need to be aware of some current trends. First, Lorio said consumers are exhibiting "Frugality Fatigue," which means they are tiring of purchasing the cheapest possible product. However, consumers have a new sense of value when it comes to what they purchase.

Lorio also pointed out that 70 percent of people who enter a c-store do so alone. To get them to come back, it's all about the food. "Convey you have fresh, quality food," she said.

Knowing the demographics of customers is also crucial to meeting customer needs, she said. Lorio divided consumers into three groups, the first of which is the 18- to 34-year-old "Young and Mobile" group. This group is comprised of people who are taste and convenience focused, not concerned about health or value and are excited about new product introductions.

"Traditional Fuelers" are those who are older and often male. This group, according to Lorio, is convenience focused, not as concerned about taste and not excited by new products.

The final demographic is "Family Focused." Often male and between 18 and 35 years old, this group cares most about family and social obligations.

The General Mills data also revealed why consumers choose c-stores for their immediate consumption trips. The research revealed that the largest percentage, 22 percent, do so to "drink up." This was followed in descending order by obtaining an easy, satisfying meal (19 percent); the consumer is located in a food desert without other options (17 percent); a gas stop/pit stop (14 percent); it's "time to eat" (14 percent); and because they have a craving for sweets (14 percent).

When it comes to immediate consumption trips, c-stores' staunchest competition comes from QSRs, said Lorio. Forty-three percent of immediate consumption trips occur at QSRs. C-stores are second at 20 percent, with club stores and supercenters lagging far behind. However, c-store immediate consumption trips could drop as a result of increased drugstore competition.

How are c-stores different from QSRs? C-stores dominate when it comes to packaged food, Lorio said. They sell about three times as many packaged foods as QSRs. In addition, c-stores rise above QSRs with the morning business they attract, as well as customer desire for all-day snacking, which c-stores can fulfill.

"QSRs have always been about hunger," said Lorio. "Now, they are about energy (foods and beverages like coffee). C-stores have always been about energy. They can do better when it comes to food. Shoppers want hot, good-tasting food. Offer a broad selection of food items to accompany the beverages that you sell well. Doing so can mean $250,000 per store annually."

There are several things c-store owners can do to steal immediate consumption trips. "You have to remind customers you can serve multiple needs that a QSR can't," said Lorio. "And you have to solve hunger. Drive up their energy and cravings. You need to make sure consumers say they have to go to your store to satisfy a craving."





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